The Ukraine war is entering a critical phase as Russian president Vladimir Putin has decided to increase violence on civilians, which could cost a lot of innocent lives and qualify Putin for war crimes.
Seeing the unfolding situation, there are three possibilities of the Ukraine war, the absolute disaster, the much-needed compromise, and the unlikely salvation through which only the Russian people can rein in Putin.
The Absolute Disaster: Most Likely Outcome of the War
Russian forces are hitting Ukrainian cities with missiles and rockets in their bid to completely shatter the infrastructure of the country.
Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, is the victim of merciless airstrikes by Russia as multiple people died in rocket attacks. These attacks are reported to be the most violent international rocket attacks since last year’s Israeli bombardment of Palestine.
And now, Russian airborne forces have landed in the same city, which is likely to intensify the situation to the extent that it could shatter civilian lives completely. Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, is also in danger as TV towers in the city are on the hit list of Russia, which will eventually shatter the communication infrastructure of the country. This would come at a time when Big Tech was already finding it hard to regulate their companies and communication infrastructure in the warring nations to avoid conspiracies.
Thus, the first likely scenario of Russia is the merciless bombardment of each and every corner of Ukraine, and the situation is very likely to go that route, which will be the deadliest ending the world can imagine as of now.
This unleashed the brutal side of Putin, which he developed over time, and if he does not refrain from that, he is likely to endorse this end to the war without worrying about the humanitarian cost of the crisis.
A Much-Needed Compromise for Everyone: Second Probable End to War
The second likely end to the war could be a compromise between the West and Russia, hoping that Russia would withdraw all of its forces again and restore the pre-war boundaries of the world.
If this happens, the West may have to revoke all the sanctions on the Putin regime. While this may not be the end that could bring Putin to justice, this would be the only way through which Putin can be incentivized not to unleash new horrors on civilians.
Putin may want to introduce a pro-Russia President in Ukraine, but for this purpose, he would need to station his troops permanently in the country, which would still be considered an invasion even if killings come down.
Eventually, this would still encourage the West to put sanctions on Russia and boycott them diplomatically. In the long run, it would be impossible for Putin to tolerate the sanctions that are currently impacting his country, as domestic pressure will start building, which would choke the Russian government at the end of the day.
The Ideal End of War: The End of the Putin Regime
Finally, the end of the war, which may seem ideal on paper but is the most difficult to achieve in reality, is if Russian people step out to denounce the brutality of Putin in significant numbers.
While they may face initial resistance and mass arrests at the hand of Putin-led police, it can eventually choke the Russian president if Russians do not back off.
Mass protests have already been seen in Russia, in which more than 2000 people who participated ended up in prisons. However, prisons have their own capacities and limits, and Putin will have to rethink his strategy if he faces domestic calls of unprecedented nature.
While calculating his way to the war, Putin perhaps did not imagine this situation, as such protests rarely happen in Russia, so countering them would be equally rare for Putin.
The ideal situation for Russia, and obviously the whole world, would be if Putin only limited himself to opposing the extension of NATO to the border of Ukraine. However, now that he has decided to go violent, things will worsen if he decides to end the war with the first possible outcome, the absolute disaster of Ukraine.