China – Taiwan Face-Off: The US has Much to Lose if China Annexes the Island

by Eli Mshomi
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The spat between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Biden administration is rising because of the China – Taiwan issue.

Chinese fighter jets incursions in the Republic of China (ROC) identification zone on the celebration day of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), also known as Taiwan, have raised concerns in the US regarding Xi Jinping’s assertive posture toward the island.

It is not only the Taiwan issue that is warming up the temperatures between two economic and military giants, but there are multiple economic, strategic, and technical factors that are bringing both countries in front of each other over every issue.

The Chinese president clearly stated that they would reunite the rogue province (Taiwan) with the mainland as part of the 2049 dream.

The interference of 56 fighter jets is a clear signal that China would not hesitate to take action against America if it provided military support to the island.

The Chinese state-controlled newspaper even threatened to give the US soldiers a “death blow” in case of  US intervention.

But the liberal school of thought of international relations still believes that due to the integrated economies of both countries, they are unlikely to go for an all-out war, which seems to be a valid notion for the time being.

China and Taiwan issue can cause a global tech outrage as Taiwan is an home to the chip manufacturing industries which drives the IT sector of the world.

China and Taiwan issue can cause a global tech outrage as Taiwan is an home to the chip manufacturing industries which drives the IT sector of the world.

China-Taiwan Issue Could Create Global Tech Crisis

Taiwan is leading the global tech sector right now, as it is home to the majority of semiconductor chips that are running the big tech giants, including Apple, Microsoft, IBM, and others.

The US is well aware of this risk and worries about the future of the tech sector in case of the possible Chinese annexation of Taiwan.

Not only this but weapons sales to Taiwan also constitutes a major benefit, as these sales bring a lot of money to the country. America sold the island  $5.1 billion of weapons in 2020.

For the United States, strategic hegemony and a trillion-dollars worth of trade interests in the South China Sea are extremely crucial.

In the case of Chinese annexation of Taiwan, there would be a significant blow to the US’s post-cold war dominance in global affairs, which is already on the decline because of the rising multipolar world order.

There will also be a threat to $1.3 trillion worth of US trade shipments that pass through the South China Sea every year.

The administrations present in both countries would think a thousand times before declaring a full-scale war.

Any major military conflict between the two countries would disrupt the global supply chain to an unprecedented extent.

The US approach of not engaging with its allies regarding Taiwan issue can create a sense of distrust in the alliances, just like when Trump did not engage many of the US allies in his global decisions.

The US approach of not engaging with its allies regarding Taiwan issue can create a sense of distrust in the alliances, just like when Trump did not engage many of the US allies in his global decisions.

US Silence Could Cost Them its Long-term Global Allies

Ignoring the Taiwan issue could create a trust deficit between the US and its allies of Quad and AUKUS. They will perceive America as an unreliable partner in difficult circumstances.

Therefore, the state department of America should make clear that it would defend the Taiwan strait at any cost.

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In the past, when US President Donald Trump announced the cut in the spending of NATO, it created an atmosphere of trust deficit among its European allies.

Successful defense of the rogue province will give a new life to Quad and AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific region, and through this, they could better contain China strategically in the Asia Pacific region.

As the Chinese Communist Party portrays its will for the reunification of Taiwan by 2049, the US must act now or it would become too late.

As the Chinese Communist Party portrays its will for the reunification of Taiwan by 2049, the US must act now or it would become too late.

China Trying to Choke Taiwan: An Everlasting Issue

The Chinese Communist Party has been using pressurizing tactics against Taiwan for a very long time.

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Communication boycotts, reductions of tourists, disinformation propaganda to divide society, territorial sovereignty violations, preventing organizations from doing businesses, trade partnerships, and multinational corporations to recognize the island as a separate state are all part of PRC coercion to reunify the rogue province.

The extreme use of these methods could create hatred and rebellion among Taiwanese people, which will further widen the distance between China and Taiwan.

US Afghan withdrawal has triggered China to become assertive in its approach towards Taiwan.

US Afghan withdrawal has triggered China to become assertive in its approach towards Taiwan.

US’s Afghan Failure Triggers Chinese Assertiveness Toward Taiwan

The sudden withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan gave perfect timing to China to sort out its regional issues and invade the country.

Therefore, CCP is showing a sudden aggressive posture towards Taiwan. Besides this, the Galway Valley issue with India, the Hong Kong issue, and the nine-dash line issue with the East Asian states is all part of the same gamble.

PRC is doing well in economic terms at the global level, and now it is trying to increase its military and strategic power to grab its role as the next superpower.

That’s why the Biden administration and its allies will not allow the rising dragon to outperform them in various economic, military, strategic, tech, and AI sectors so easily.

 

Final Thoughts

The only possible policy option for the world powers is to try to maintain the current status quo regarding the Taiwan issue, as any other offensive means will only lead both countries into war.

This can only be possible if President Joe Biden shows credible strategic deterrence that it would support the Taiwan military in case of any aggression by the Chinese military.

This fear of American interference would prevent Xi Jinping from taking any military action over the island issue.

Secondly, economic ties and more interdependency with each other in various sectors could also play a significant role in preventing any escalation between both countries.

President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party and the leader of the Republic of China is a firm advocate of Taiwan’s sovereignty, and if she can emphasize the UN to intervene, it can be a life-saving measure for everyone.

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