Middle East politics is once again changing, with the US and Iran nuclear talks restarting after a long gap.
But the gap was fully expected when Trump unilaterally pulled the US out of the landmark Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and this time Iran is highly unlikely to go back to the 2015 agreement.
But the US and Israel’s disagreements have widened regarding the Iran nuclear talks, and the conflict is going public with the diverging interests of both long-term friends.
Israel Vows to Attack Iran; the US Wants Negotiation: Two Friends Coming at Cross Purposes
The US – Iran nuclear talks are going to start on November 29 in Vienna, which will decide the course of Iran’s alleged nuclear program.
Israel has shown its concerns about the upcoming talks, saying that Iran will be able to make a nuclear bomb in the next five years, even with the talks.
Not only this, but Israel has also vowed to take Iran by its horns, which alarms the world about the possibility of the imminent stand-off between both countries.
In the last 20 months alone, Israel has successfully assassinated Iran’s top nuclear scientist while driving explosions at Iran’s nuclear facilities in its bid to stop Iran from making an atomic bomb.
Unlike the USA, Israel believes in the hard power to tackle Iran, an approach that has the potential to push the region into chaos.
And Israel is widely believed to have the back of the US in perpetuating these attacks in Iran. So, all in all, due to these attacks on Iranian facilities, the distance between Iran and the USA is greater than ever today.
American intelligence has also asserted that Iran has quickly reestablished its facilities after getting hit by Israel, which also raised the US concerns about the clandestine power which Iran holds.
Iran is in the Driver’s Seat in Negotiating with the US this Time
With Iran’s new President Ebrahim Raisi in power, now will be the first time he will negotiate a nuclear deal with the United States, which also increases the probability of rising tensions among all the stakeholders.
Nonetheless, the US has already started considering its Plan B in case the talks fail, which is very much a possibility this time.
Last month, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the administration is ready to turn to “other options” if the talks with Iran fail, while Israel has also vowed to embrace the military power against Iran to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
While the US strategy to support Israel in case of its possible military intervention in the region remains unknown, the US will definitely move toward imposing more sanctions against the Iranian regime that will be the announcement of an all-out war.
This will also drive Iran to pursue its nuclear bomb more ambitiously, resulting in further tensions.
The European diplomats believe that the US can incent China to stop importing oil from Iran and launch a covert operation against Iran to sabotage its nuclear efforts.
The failed negotiations will replicate the scenario of pre-2105 US – Iran relations when the probability of Israel hitting Iran was at an all-time high.
But the global actors must embrace the truth that the nuclear program of Iran is much stronger today than it was back in 2015. So, any military attempt is likely to be responded to with a more ambitious buildup by Iran.
The bargaining power of the US has also been reduced massively. This is due to the fact that now the Iranian government has seen the nuclear deal in practice.
They hoped in 2015 that the agreement would help them gain momentum in uplifting the economic restrictions, but it did little to help Iran’s economy.
Now Iran is wiser and will try to negotiate on its own terms, which will put the US on the defensive.