New Fire Triangle: New Leadership in USA, Iran, Israel is Ready to Burn the Fire

by Eli Mshomi

Amid the rising populist wave globally, the change in the leadership in the United States, Israel and Iran is meant to modify the power dynamics in global politics.

As all three countries have installed new governments this year, the recalibration of the multilateral relations can bring the prevailing chaos to an end.

However, looking in the new government ranks, the future of the US-Iran nuclear deal and Iran-Israel relations looks bleak.

Although the power transition in Israel and Iran will bring a change, to have hope to bring peace in the region would be a wild goose chase.

In fact, these transitions can move matters towards even worse scenarios, as in both Israel and Iran, the new leadership is even more conservative and will not pursue talks in any case.

How will global politics play out after the change of leadership in all of these countries? Let’s see.

Middle East Politics: The New Leadership of Israel and Iran has no Sanity

When Naftali Bennett overpowered Benjamin Netanyahu, hopes were high that the everlasting crisis of Israel and Palestine would come out on one side of the fence or other.

As the world celebrated the ceasefire of the brutal Israeli aerial bombardment of the Gaza strip, the new government was expected to heal the relations.

However, despite having a ceasefire, Israeli forces have bombed Gaza at least twice since the ceasefire. 

The new Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, is a former ally of Netanyahu and an even stronger hardliner.

This right-wing politician has a history of supporting the illegal annexation of the West Bank by the Jewish Settlers.

The international community does not accept Israel’s claims in West Bank. However, Bennett has been an ardent advocate of expanding Jewish settlers in the West Bank.

During his tenure, he is likely to pursue this agenda, which will trigger a backfire from the Palestinian nationalists as well as from Iran.

The new President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, is also an ultra-conservative leader who would never prefer any sort of dialogue with Israel.

In fact, Iran’s support for proxies in the region can increase manifold now, considering the views the new president holds.

Similarly, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini is not going to change, who has a significant influence on Iran’s domestic and foreign policies

Closing a Deal with Iran: It’s Now or Never for the USA

Walking the hardline approach, once Ebrahim Raisi assumes the office of the president in Iran, any talks regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), suspended Iran’s nuclear deal, will not be entertained by him.

For the Biden administration, the interim period before the new government’s inauguration is crucial to catalyze any nuclear talks. 

If the Biden administration somehow clinches a deal with Iran in this period, it will be a win-win situation for them.

The upcoming government will not revoke the deal, considering the economic boom which would come with the closing of the deal.

In this case, the new government would take the credit for the better economic condition, grabbing popular support.

However, it would mean an end to Hassan Rouhani’s political career. The population of Iran is ready to entertain economic sanctions but not a deal with the United States.

So, popular wrath is inevitable against Rouhani if somehow he closes a deal with the US.

But it seems the last opportunity for the Biden administration to initiate the diplomatic efforts with full flow.

Final Thoughts

Leaving all the things aside, the United States government needs to assess the imminent danger in the Middle East.

The right-wing governments of Naftali Bennett and Ebrahim Raisi would create a mess in the region through their proxies.

Whether it is the Syria war or Palestine crisis, both countries are bound to come head-to-head in the future.

If the US fails to close a nuclear deal any time soon with Iran, Ebrahim Raisi can even change the policy direction of the Iranian government in a way that they start enriching their uranium for making a nuclear bomb.

If Raisi goes with full flow, he can even walk the perilous path of not complying with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) standards, which will certainly push the USA and Israel to retaliate further against the Iranian republic.

Recently the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran also decided to initiate bilateral talks to mend their relations, which is one of the primary causes of chaos in the Middle East.

However, the shift in power in Iran can push the ultra-right-wing leader of Iran to backtrack from any such talks, which would once again push the Middle East region to the brink of war.

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