In a country racked by decades of violence and upheaval, the United States left twenty years after its invasion. With the collapse of the Afghan government, the global power corridors are thinking about whether to accept the new Taliban government or not.
Some nations are reluctantly accepting the Taliban as Afghanistan’s ruling power, but they’re holding off on officially recognizing the government.
So backchannel diplomacy is at an all-time high where nations are connecting with the Taliban, yet they are not accepting it officially.
Afghan Taliban Rising, and so Does Back Channel Diplomacy
The whole world has stakes in this strategically important country as it can provide breathing space to different sorts of terrorists as they did between 1996 and 2001.
Although the new government is showing a more moderate face this time, their ideological basis overlaps with Al Qaeda and other extremist groups.
A second terrorist group, Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), an Afghan branch of the Islamic State, was also active during the American occupation, battling the Taliban and attacking US forces. There is widespread doubt about the Taliban’s ability to control this group.
The performance of a Taliban-led administration will be closely scrutinized by its neighbors. Afghanistan’s most powerful and richest neighbor, China, shares a short, remote border with Afghanistan, under whose rule in the 1990s Uyghur militants came from the far western region of Xinjiang.
And China-Taliban bromance is not hidden from anyone, which depicts that even if China has not accepted the new Kabul government.
Taliban Need Assistance in Actualizing the Global Agenda
Thousands of individuals have fled the nation as a result of the Taliban’s swift victory, which has sparked a humanitarian crisis.
Many people associated with the American presence in the country were left behind after foreign troops departed, many of whom feared reprisals and wanted to leave. There are thousands of internally displaced people and many more at land borders.
According to the United Nations, nearly half of Afghanistan’s population requires assistance, and half of the Afghan children under the age of five are malnourished.
As the world watches how the Taliban run their government, it is curious to know what kind of government they will build.
The US and the European Union have pushed the Taliban to build a more inclusive leadership that includes women and ethnic and religious minorities in the country.
Only a few countries recognized the new Afghan government during their last tenure between 1996 to 2001. However, their influence has grown in recent years, and international communities have been working with Taliban representatives for some time in their political office in Qatar.
The external countries will be closely watching their actions to determine how well they adhere to the international commitments they make, as well as how well they follow basic democratic and legal principles.
United States officials said the Taliban would be evaluated based on whether they are protecting minority and women’s rights, allowing foreigners with valid documents to travel freely, and taking steps to prevent international terrorist groups from using Afghanistan as a terror launching pad.
If the world wants the Taliban to achieve all the things it envisions, accepting the Taliban government can be a feasible approach as the global powers will be able to collaborate with the new Afghan administration in various avenues.
Afghanistan in Danger: Only Combined Action Can Save the Country
Afghanistan’s economy is grinding to a halt, largely due to the lack of foreign humanitarian aid and spending, as with the cash running out, government salaries have been halted, and inflation has been rising rapidly.
The West expects the insurgents to be more receptive to demands for moderation due to the need for imports of food, medicine, and energy.
Afghan central bank reserves, which are almost all held overseas, are currently frozen. European and American aid programs have been suspended.
Taliban’s plans for an administration in Afghanistan are unknown, as is whether they will be as accommodating as they claim.
During the negotiations, they conveyed the impression that they wanted to do things differently this time, rather than the way they had done things in the past.
Since the Taliban were overthrown, Afghan women have made many gains, but they now fear they will lose some of those advances.
The Afghanistan football team has migrated to Pakistan amid the declining rights. Taliban officials are seeking to persuade women that things would improve, but there are indications that, at least in some regions, they have begun to reimpose the Sharia Law.
Many fear that radical groups like Al Qaeda and others will again find a safe haven in Afghanistan, for those countries like Russia, China, Pakistan, and Iran are more worried because the emergence of any terrorism will impact these countries directly.
That is why Russia and China are trying to engage with the new Afghan government, so that common ground could be established for them to work with the new Taliban regime. Because for them, ISIS-K is a real threat and a common foe.
However, all this could only be possible if the US and the EU are onboard because at the moment, Afghanistan’s $9.4 billion has been frozen by the United States, and for the Taliban to function in their government, they need that money to be unfrozen.
The possibility of an Afghan Taliban representative representing Afghanistan at the United Nations is getting closer. Currently, the United States is part of a rotating team of nine countries reviewing the application.
For the time being, the position is held by the UN ambassador of the deposed Afghan government.
Taliban is currently seeking a seat in the UN; however, that would be premature as the West has yet to recognize them.